Author: Germyah Batey
Published: 2:01 PM EDT September 26, 2025
Local Hampton Roads professor's forecasting model aims to revolutionize health crisis prediction
A local professor at Old Dominion University has created a disease forecasting model that predicts health crises, aiming to revolutionize healthcare strategies.
NORFOLK, Va. — A local professor has developed a new data-driven tool that could transform disease prevention in Hampton Roads by predicting health crises before they occur.
Aditya Chakraborty, an assistant professor at the Joint School of Public Health at Old Dominion University and Norfolk State University, developed the Disease Forecasting Model, which uses data to predict future health crises much like a weather forecast predicts storms.
He says the disease forecasting model uses the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data about deaths from 14 major causes to predict future health crises.
It looks at factors such as diabetes, stroke, and heart disease to track whether numbers are going up or down.
"So if the current mortality is more than previous weeks, then there is a problem," said Chakraborty. "We can predict what is going to happen; that is the purpose of a predictive model."
He says that kind of early warning could give doctors, hospitals, and even policymakers a plan.
"From a policy perspective, it will help policy makers free resource allocation, and also they will understand better what was wrong," he said.
This could save lives because it doesn't just explain what has already happened. It predicts what might happen next week, next month, or even years ahead.
That information could be what health leaders need to respond faster.
"Starting from a mortality, we can backtrack and go to the causes. So, I think from that perspective it's useful," he said.
Professor Chakraborty wants to replicate this study to track other illnesses, such as cancer. With more time and data, he believes this tool could bring endless results.
As for what's next, he hopes to expand the Disease Forecasting Model statewide and beyond.